Under the heading of notable ‘premature demises’ may turn out to be this year’s presidential election. Poll results, such as they are, seem to be fueling the wishful thinking of some of the poohbahs in Donald Trumps adopted Republican party. They have already put the Champaign on ice in preparation for cork popping at Hillary Clinton’s November victory.
Fueled by media hysteria at the thought of a U.S. President having gained the office without their imprimatur, polls fuel the negaboobs whose insecurity has reached panty twisting levels at the thought of this interloper diminishing their party influence. And, by the way, they have lost the last two presidential elections.
Projecting the behavior of a hundred million people from 500 or 1000 phone calls relies heavily on the consistency of historical voting habits. When election interest is aroused by strong stimuli like a sense of threatened financial and personal security, how reliable is that history?
Candidates who trail in polls always attempt to diminish their meaning for a variety of excuses, but in this case, there may be some validity to their reservations. Take for example last fall’s gubernatorial election in Kentucky. Tea Party Republican candidate Matt Bevin trailed Democrat Jack Conway by 3 to 5 points in almost every pre-election poll. He finished nearly 9 points ahead on election day.
A person was interviewed recently who attended a lawyer’s conference and disclosed that when they signed in, they were instructed to disclose who they were going to vote for in November. Hillary Clinton won that count 53 to 43 percent. At the conclusion of the conference, they cast a secret ballot for president which Trump won 51 to 41. It appears that the establishment and media smear campaigns against him have intimidated some public expression of support. But the voting booth is private.
Before we write the “Dewey Beats Truman” headline, let’s count the votes first.